A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
